Fri, Nov 21, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 112 | 29 | 17 | 428 |
| WPG | 211 | 04 | 113 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:16CARJordan StaalAssists: Jordan Martinook · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 3:45WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Mark Scheifele, Dylan DeMelo · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 9:28WPGGabriel VilardiPPAssists: Cole Perfetti · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 3:08CARJordan StaalAssists: Jalen Chatfield, K'Andre Miller · Tip-in, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 6:31CARSeth JarvisSHAssists: Sebastian Aho, K'Andre Miller · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–2
- P3 3:19CARAndrei SvechnikovPPGWGAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Sebastian Aho · Slap, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 4:13WPGGabriel VilardiAssists: Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:50WPGGabriel Vilardi: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:57CARLogan Stankoven: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:38CARSean Walker: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:38WPGKyle Connor: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:42CAREric Robinson: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:19WPGLogan Stanley: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:29WPGAlex Iafallo: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:08CARK'Andre Miller: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHall – Jankowski – Robinson7:26
xG 0.11–0.03 (76%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Carrier9:56
xG 0.27–0.53 (34%)attempts 10–10goals 2–1
- Ehlers – Stankoven – Blake9:55
xG 0.18–0.49 (27%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis11:03
xG 0.10–0.48 (18%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Chatfield – Miller17:43
xG 0.30–0.62 (33%)attempts 21–11goals 1–2
- Gostisbehere – Walker14:41
xG 0.19–0.60 (24%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Reilly – Nystrom11:40
xG 0.14–0.77 (16%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Vilardi14:25
xG 0.70–0.23 (75%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Iafallo4:27
xG 0.47–0.07 (86%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Toews – Nyquist – Niederreiter4:42
xG 0.21–0.10 (67%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Lowry – Namestnikov – Perfetti3:21
xG 0.08–0.01 (88%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey17:12
xG 0.91–0.11 (89%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Samberg – Pionk15:32
xG 0.66–0.27 (71%)attempts 19–14goals 0–1
- Schenn – Stanley7:23
xG 0.11–0.14 (44%)attempts 3–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).