Sat, Nov 22, 2025·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Edmonton Oilers 6, Florida Panthers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 313 | 111 | 27 | 631 |
| FLA | 18 | 220 | 010 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:25EDMJack RoslovicAssists: Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 6:30FLAAnton LundellAssists: Mackie Samoskevich, Seth Jones · Slap, 0.27 xG1–1
- P1 7:06EDMJack RoslovicAssists: Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P1 13:58EDMMattias EkholmAssists: Adam Henrique, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 6:45EDMVasily PodkolzinGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.04 xG4–1
- P2 10:04FLAMackie SamoskevichAssists: Uvis Balinskis, Sam Bennett · Slap, 0.07 xG4–2
- P2 13:30FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Anton Lundell, Brad Marchand · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 17:20EDMConnor McDavidENAssists: Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.75 xG5–3
- P3 17:47EDMMatt SavoieENAssists: Mattias Janmark, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.71 xG6–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 8:35EDMTrent Frederic: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 8:35FLAA.J. Greer: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 8:35FLAA.J. Greer: Misconduct10 min
- P1 8:35EDMTrent Frederic: Misconduct10 min
- P1 11:55FLADonovan Sebrango: Interference2 min
- P2 8:02EDMDavid Tomasek: Interference2 min
- P2 12:29EDMBrett Kulak: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:19FLAUvis Balinskis: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:09EDMZach Hyman: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:23EDMConnor Clattenburg: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:23EDMMattias Janmark: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:23EDMMattias Janmark: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:23FLAA.J. Greer: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:23FLANiko Mikkola: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Lundell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Janmark – Clattenburg – Tomasek2:36
xG 0.08–0.06 (56%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Mangiapane – Podkolzin8:53
xG 0.10–0.10 (48%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Henrique – Hyman – Frederic8:20
xG 0.37–0.72 (34%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
- McDavid – Roslovic – Savoie7:59
xG 0.78–1.42 (35%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Emberson16:15
xG 1.09–0.93 (54%)attempts 19–27goals 0–1
- Ekholm – Bouchard13:44
xG 1.15–1.25 (48%)attempts 20–19goals 2–0
- Nurse – Regula14:40
xG 0.55–1.03 (35%)attempts 11–18goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Lundell – Samoskevich10:32
xG 1.25–0.57 (69%)attempts 18–10goals 1–2
- Kunin – Gregor – Devine6:23
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Greer9:18
xG 0.30–0.65 (31%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Rodrigues – Boqvist9:07
xG 0.17–1.02 (14%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestForsling – Balinskis13:01
xG 1.38–0.20 (87%)attempts 16–7goals 1–1
- Forsling – Mikkola2:34
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Petry – Sebrango10:54
xG 0.62–0.59 (52%)attempts 24–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).