Sat, Nov 22, 2025·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Ottawa Senators 3, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 15 | 115 | 17 | 327 |
| SJS | 16 | 17 | 06 | 219 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:50OTTDylan CozensPPAssists: Tim Stützle, Jake Sanderson · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 16:06SJSJohn KlingbergPPAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Will Smith · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 7:47SJSBarclay GoodrowAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Mario Ferraro · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 18:38OTTFabian ZetterlundAssists: Tyler Kleven · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 13:22OTTTim StützleGWGAssists: Nick Cousins, Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 7:28SJSPhilipp Kurashev: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 8:18OTTJordan Spence: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:06OTTHayden Hodgson: Charging2 min · PPG
- P1 18:41OTTTim Stützle: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:41SJSTimothy Liljegren: Interference2 min
- P2 10:45OTTHayden Hodgson: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:45SJSRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:47SJSJohn Klingberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:25OTTMichael Amadio: Interference2 min
- P3 3:18SJSWill Smith: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 7:39OTTLars Eller: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:02SJSZack Ostapchuk: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dellandrea won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestEller – Zetterlund – Cozens7:28
xG 0.75–0.12 (86%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – Amadio – Pinto7:09
xG 0.35–0.07 (83%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Cousins – Amadio – Pinto2:13
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Eller – Batherson – Stützle2:32
xG 0.03–0.11 (19%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Chabot11:05
xG 0.91–0.25 (79%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Spence – Kleven9:14
xG 0.73–0.35 (68%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Spence – Sanderson2:08
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGaudette – Dellandrea – Graf6:41
xG 0.33–0.11 (74%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Wennberg – Eklund8:29
xG 0.19–0.18 (52%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Kurashev – Smith – Celebrini9:37
xG 0.12–0.52 (19%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Reaves – Goodrow – Ostapchuk6:03
xG 0.24–0.76 (24%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Klingberg3:16
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Orlov – Liljegren9:53
xG 0.31–0.51 (38%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Desharnais – Mukhamadullin10:27
xG 0.03–0.32 (8%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).