Sat, Nov 22, 2025·Honda Center, Anaheim
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Anaheim Ducks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 311 | 08 | 012 | 01 | 332 |
| ANA | 26 | 113 | 011 | 13 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:25VGKShea TheodoreAssists: Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 4:37VGKBraeden BowmanAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Zach Whitecloud · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–0
- P1 7:43ANAJackson LaCombeAssists: Beckett Sennecke, Cutter Gauthier · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P1 8:17ANAOlen ZellwegerAssists: Troy Terry, Jacob Trouba · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P1 17:59VGKTomas HertlPPAssists: Jack Eichel · Deflected, 0.20 xG3–2
- P2 13:50ANATroy TerryAssists: Leo Carlsson, Jackson LaCombe · Snap, 0.12 xG3–3
- OT 3:57ANACutter GauthierGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:24ANAJansen Harkins: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:34ANADrew Helleson: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P2 2:03ANACutter Gauthier: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:24VGKJack Eichel: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:42ANAOlen Zellweger: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:28VGKBrayden McNabb: Holding2 min
- P3 3:38VGKBrandon Saad: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:38ANARyan Strome: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Howden won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Marner – Dorofeyev11:23
xG 0.52–0.27 (66%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Smith – Saad – Howden7:28
xG 0.26–0.12 (69%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Saad – Kolesar – Howden4:25
xG 0.21–0.12 (64%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
- Barbashev – Eichel – Bowman10:21
xG 0.51–0.43 (54%)attempts 9–14goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Whitecloud16:12
xG 1.10–0.47 (70%)attempts 22–17goals 1–1
- Hutton – Korczak11:38
xG 0.13–0.33 (28%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore17:24
xG 0.50–0.92 (35%)attempts 14–23goals 1–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Terry – McTavish12:22
xG 0.90–0.62 (59%)attempts 20–15goals 1–0
- Killorn – Strome – Vatrano10:31
xG 0.17–0.24 (41%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
- Gauthier – Carlsson – Sennecke13:45
xG 0.59–0.68 (46%)attempts 24–9goals 1–0
- Johnston – Harkins – Nesterenko5:46
xG 0.10–0.28 (26%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Mintyukov13:50
xG 0.80–0.13 (86%)attempts 21–12goals 0–0
- Helleson – Zellweger4:14
xG 0.23–0.09 (71%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Trouba – Mintyukov3:15
xG 0.06–0.03 (67%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).