Sun, Nov 23, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Minnesota Wild 3, Winnipeg Jets 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 07 | 213 | 110 | 330 |
| WPG | 09 | 013 | 010 | 032 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:23MINDanila YurovGWGAssists: Yakov Trenin · Snap, 0.28 xG1–0
- P2 18:12MINBrock FaberSHAssists: Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P3 6:29MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Jake Middleton, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:32MINYakov Trenin: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:09MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:09WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:01WPGDylan DeMelo: Interference2 min
- P2 16:29MINKirill Kaprizov: Holding2 min
- P3 0:06MINMatt Boldy: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:55WPGLogan Stanley: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:55MINMats Zuccarello: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:23MINMarcus Johansson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Kaprizov – Yurov11:42
xG 0.43–0.37 (54%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Pitlick – Jones – Ohgren5:58
xG 0.09–0.20 (31%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Foligno – Trenin – Sturm8:18
xG 0.41–0.66 (38%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy9:22
xG 0.14–0.50 (22%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Spurgeon – Middleton12:24
xG 0.54–0.50 (52%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Buium14:46
xG 0.73–0.87 (45%)attempts 11–21goals 1–0
- Brodin – Faber16:37
xG 0.35–0.61 (36%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Vilardi13:49
xG 0.70–0.27 (72%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Toews – Niederreiter – Perfetti2:45
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Lowry – Namestnikov – Perfetti5:30
xG 0.13–0.01 (91%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Iafallo – Barron – Koepke4:03
xG 0.13–0.03 (82%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey8:10
xG 0.44–0.05 (91%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Samberg7:42
xG 0.65–0.30 (68%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Miller – Morrissey6:24
xG 0.28–0.04 (87%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).