Sun, Nov 23, 2025·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 5, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 27 | 211 | 13 | 521 |
| VAN | 113 | 06 | 112 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:05VANFilip HronekAssists: Jake DeBrusk · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 7:33CGYMorgan FrostAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Matt Coronato · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 8:08CGYConnor ZaryAssists: Mikael Backlund, Blake Coleman · Snap, 0.27 xG2–1
- P2 10:37CGYKevin BahlGWGAssists: Nazem Kadri, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 16:31CGYYegor SharangovichAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Nazem Kadri · Bat, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 7:59CGYBlake ColemanSHAssists: Mikael Backlund · Tip-in, 0.07 xG5–1
- P3 8:16VANQuinn HughesPPAssists: Kevin Lankinen · Backhand, 0.11 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:19CGYKevin Bahl: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 10:18VANDrew O'Connor: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:44CGYAdam Klapka: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:10VANTyler Myers: Holding2 min
- P2 10:37VANEvander Kane: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 16:45VANElias Pettersson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:41CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:49CGYBlake Coleman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Räty won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Zary8:23
xG 0.61–0.10 (86%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Kadri – Farabee – Sharangovich8:49
xG 0.43–0.23 (65%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Huberdeau – Frost – Coronato9:10
xG 0.29–0.41 (41%)attempts 4–12goals 1–1
- Lomberg – Beecher – Klapka4:14
xG 0.25–0.39 (39%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Bahl15:00
xG 1.02–0.86 (54%)attempts 12–22goals 4–1
- Hanley – Pachal10:31
xG 0.35–0.28 (56%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Weegar – Kuznetsov13:47
xG 0.30–0.57 (35%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBoeser – Garland – Kampf8:09
xG 0.32–0.09 (78%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- MacEachern – Karlsson – Sasson5:40
xG 0.41–0.20 (67%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Kane – DeBrusk – Pettersson6:39
xG 0.37–0.26 (59%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Kane – Sherwood – Räty2:45
xG 0.04–0.02 (64%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Hronek9:46
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Hughes – Willander5:40
xG 0.42–0.21 (66%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Hronek – Hughes5:00
xG 0.18–0.05 (77%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).