Mon, Nov 24, 2025·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Philadelphia Flyers 0, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 04 | 07 | 09 | 020 |
| TBL | 17 | 15 | 16 | 318 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:34TBLBrandon HagelGWGAssists: Emil Lilleberg, Nikita Kucherov · Deflected, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 16:00TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Brandon Hagel, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 19:45TBLBrandon HagelENAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.77 xG0–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:21PHINicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:21TBLCurtis Douglas: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:00TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:35PHITyson Foerster: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:06PHIEgor Zamula: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cates won the faceoff against Paul
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestKonecny – Cates – Foerster12:51
xG 0.28–0.02 (95%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Couturier – Brink – Michkov10:49
xG 0.56–0.55 (50%)attempts 13–8goals 0–2
- Deslauriers – Hathaway – Abols5:22
xG 0.00–0.38 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Tippett – Zegras12:39
xG 0.24–0.70 (25%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Zamula12:49
xG 0.40–0.26 (60%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Sanheim – York19:45
xG 0.46–0.47 (50%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Andrae – Drysdale15:28
xG 0.31–0.83 (27%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestBjorkstrand – Douglas – Finley4:28
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Cirelli – Hagel13:55
xG 0.82–0.58 (59%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
- Guentzel – Goncalves – James10:31
xG 0.42–0.45 (49%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Gourde – Girgensons – Paul12:27
xG 0.02–0.30 (5%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSantini – Carlile11:39
xG 0.48–0.17 (74%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- D'Astous – Lilleberg17:11
xG 0.69–0.62 (53%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
- Moser – Lilleberg2:37
xG 0.04–0.03 (57%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).