Mon, Nov 24, 2025·Prudential Center, Newark
Detroit Red Wings 3, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 17 | 115 | 113 | 335 |
| NJD | 39 | 16 | 05 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:54NJDTimo MeierAssists: Stefan Noesen, Nico Hischier · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 16:33DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Patrick Kane, Moritz Seider · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 17:58NJDNico HischierAssists: Jesper Bratt, Timo Meier · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P1 19:04NJDCody GlassAssists: Luke Hughes, Connor Brown · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 1:30DETJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Andrew Copp, Emmitt Finnie · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–3
- P2 8:38NJDConnor BrownGWGAssists: Dawson Mercer · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 10:12DETDylan LarkinAssists: Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:52DETJ.T. Compher: Boarding2 min
- P1 4:01NJDStefan Noesen: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:01DETJ.T. Compher: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:01NJDStefan Noesen: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:21NJDDougie Hamilton: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:20NJDDougie Hamilton: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00NJDJacob Markstrom: Goalie leave crease2 min
- P3 0:00NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00DETLucas Raymond: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00DETAlex DeBrincat: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00NJDJesper Bratt: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00DETDylan Larkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00DETDylan Larkin: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – Raymond – Finnie12:07
xG 0.95–0.30 (76%)attempts 22–10goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Copp – Berggren9:09
xG 0.51–0.07 (87%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Appleton – Kasper – Danielson7:11
xG 0.16–0.23 (41%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Kane – Compher – DeBrincat11:58
xG 0.53–0.99 (35%)attempts 11–18goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Bernard-Docker4:10
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Seider14:16
xG 0.75–0.45 (62%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
- Johansson – Sandin-Pellikka5:55
xG 0.26–0.08 (78%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Gritsyuk – Mercer7:56
xG 0.57–0.39 (59%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Noesen – Glendening – Cotter7:03
xG 0.30–0.26 (54%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Brown – Glass8:57
xG 0.29–0.58 (33%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Meier – Bratt – Hischier12:53
xG 0.30–0.84 (26%)attempts 10–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler16:02
xG 0.45–0.50 (48%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Dillon – Siegenthaler2:09
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Dillon – White9:43
xG 0.26–0.48 (36%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).