Mon, Nov 24, 2025·Madison Square Garden, New York
St. Louis Blues 2, New York Rangers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 15 | 07 | 19 | 221 |
| NYR | 09 | 17 | 25 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:36STLDylan HollowayAssists: Philip Broberg, Colton Parayko · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 10:06NYRVincent TrocheckAssists: Jonny Brodzinski, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 0:40NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Vladislav Gavrikov, Will Cuylle · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 8:56NYRAdam EdstromGWGAssists: Vladislav Gavrikov, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 18:45STLBrayden SchennAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P2 12:29NYRBraden Schneider: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:09NYRBrett Berard: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 19:57NYRVincent Trocheck: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestKyrou – Suter – Holloway12:25
xG 0.71–0.30 (70%)attempts 12–5goals 1–1
- Schenn – Buchnevich – Thomas3:41
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Schenn – Buchnevich – Dvorsky7:41
xG 0.23–0.32 (42%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Thomas – Neighbours – Snuggerud8:57
xG 0.05–0.43 (10%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Broberg18:27
xG 0.85–0.73 (54%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
- Faulk – Tucker10:10
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Faulk – Fowler6:18
xG 0.03–0.24 (11%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Lafrenière – Cuylle12:39
xG 0.54–0.28 (66%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Sheary – Berard – Laba7:41
xG 0.24–0.12 (66%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Carrick – Raddysh – Edstrom7:26
xG 0.17–0.09 (66%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Trocheck – Brodzinski – Panarin14:45
xG 0.69–0.65 (51%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Fox17:47
xG 0.97–0.24 (80%)attempts 25–9goals 2–0
- Vaakanainen – Robertson12:03
xG 0.15–0.25 (37%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Soucy – Schneider13:20
xG 0.24–0.62 (28%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).