Mon, Nov 24, 2025·Capital One Arena, Washington
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 07 | 07 | 19 | 123 |
| WSH | 110 | 312 | 19 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:05WSHJakob ChychrunAssists: Ryan Leonard, Hendrix Lapierre · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 16:29WSHTom WilsonGWGAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Justin Sourdif · Snap, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 19:45WSHJakob ChychrunPPAssists: Tom Wilson · Snap, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 19:57WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Justin Sourdif · Slap, 0.09 xG0–4
- P3 4:05WSHMartin FehérváryAssists: Connor McMichael, John Carlson · Slap, 0.02 xG0–5
- P3 5:50CBJDenton MateychukAssists: Brendan Gaunce, Jake Christiansen · Snap, 0.12 xG1–5
Penalties (5)
- P2 1:32WSHJustin Sourdif: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:09CBJBrendan Gaunce: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:30CBJDamon Severson: Holding2 min
- P3 7:47CBJJake Christiansen: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:28WSHJakob Chychrun: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McMichael won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Sillinger – Fantilli2:50
xG 0.78–0.09 (90%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Gaunce – Aston-Reese – Lundeström8:33
xG 0.56–0.10 (85%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Coyle – Chinakhov – Sillinger2:04
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Coyle – Monahan – Sillinger2:17
xG 0.10–0.12 (46%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Provorov13:05
xG 0.87–0.56 (61%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Severson – Christiansen2:01
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Fabbro – Mateychuk3:53
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 4–4goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Protas – Sourdif10:19
xG 0.72–0.05 (94%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Beauvillier10:36
xG 0.34–0.09 (80%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Duhaime – McMichael – Leonard7:09
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Milano – Lapierre – Frank7:17
xG 0.17–0.41 (30%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry12:19
xG 1.10–0.20 (85%)attempts 15–9goals 3–0
- Roy – Chychrun13:50
xG 0.54–0.32 (63%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Roy – Chisholm2:16
xG 0.23–0.17 (58%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).