Tue, Nov 25, 2025·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Dallas Stars 8, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 48 | 215 | 27 | 830 |
| EDM | 05 | 110 | 210 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:48DALJamie BennAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Sam Steel · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 10:51DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.24 xG2–0
- P1 15:24DALNathan BastianAssists: Radek Faksa, Colin Blackwell · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P1 18:46DALSam SteelGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Wyatt Johnston · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–0
- P2 4:39EDMConnor ClattenburgAssists: Ty Emberson, Mattias Janmark · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–1
- P2 14:01DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Wyatt Johnston · Deflected, 0.24 xG5–1
- P2 15:36DALWyatt JohnstonPPAssists: Jason Robertson, Tyler Seguin · Backhand, 0.17 xG6–1
- P3 1:23EDMEvan BouchardAssists: Vasily Podkolzin, Leon Draisaitl · Slap, 0.02 xG6–2
- P3 8:21DALJustin HryckowianAssists: Mavrik Bourque, Vladislav Kolyachonok · Wrist, 0.19 xG7–2
- P3 9:31EDMJack RoslovicAssists: Connor McDavid, Matt Savoie · Snap, 0.06 xG7–3
- P3 15:39DALNathan BastianAssists: Radek Faksa · Wrist, 0.15 xG8–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:12EDMTy Emberson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:23DALNathan Bastian: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:18DALLian Bichsel: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:18EDMAdam Henrique: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:26EDMZach Hyman: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:48EDMAdam Henrique: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:38EDMConnor Clattenburg: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:39DALVladislav Kolyachonok: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Johnston
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Steel – Johnston8:05
xG 0.93–0.30 (76%)attempts 10–8goals 2–1
- Blackwell – Faksa – Bastian9:45
xG 0.62–0.17 (78%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Bäck – Bourque – Hryckowian9:35
xG 0.46–0.01 (98%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Seguin – Hintz – Robertson8:27
xG 0.28–0.28 (50%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Heiskanen12:07
xG 1.15–0.38 (75%)attempts 18–11goals 2–0
- Petrovic – Bichsel16:16
xG 0.71–0.53 (57%)attempts 10–15goals 2–1
- Petrovic – Capobianco3:35
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestJanmark – Clattenburg – Tomasek9:08
xG 0.17–0.01 (94%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Henrique – Hyman – Frederic2:37
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- McDavid – Roslovic – Savoie6:57
xG 0.50–0.52 (49%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid5:28
xG 0.12–0.26 (32%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kulak – Emberson12:46
xG 0.32–0.37 (47%)attempts 7–11goals 2–1
- Ekholm – Bouchard14:52
xG 0.51–0.73 (41%)attempts 13–10goals 1–2
- Nurse – Regula17:06
xG 0.65–1.27 (34%)attempts 20–22goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).