Wed, Nov 26, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Nashville Predators 6, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 112 | 08 | 59 | 629 |
| DET | 07 | 210 | 114 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:48NSHMichael BuntingPPAssists: Nick Blankenburg, Erik Haula · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 5:30DETAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 16:34DETJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Nate Danielson · Snap, 0.23 xG1–2
- P3 2:05NSHNick BlankenburgAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 2:20NSHRoman JosiAssists: Michael Bunting, Michael McCarron · Snap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 3:04DETBen ChiarotAssists: Mason Appleton, J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.00 xG3–3
- P3 14:14NSHRyan O'ReillyGWGAssists: Luke Evangelista, Steven Stamkos · Snap, 0.23 xG4–3
- P3 14:42NSHErik HaulaAssists: Filip Forsberg, Jonathan Marchessault · Snap, 0.25 xG5–3
- P3 18:45NSHSteven StamkosENAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Luke Evangelista · Snap, 0.69 xG6–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 15:09DETNate Danielson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:34DETAlex DeBrincat: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:52NSHRoman Josi: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:34NSHRoman Josi: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:45DETMoritz Seider: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:35NSHSteven Stamkos: Holding2 min
- P2 15:03NSHNick Blankenburg: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:11DETBen Chiarot: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:00DETBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00NSHOzzy Wiesblatt: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – O'Reilly – Evangelista9:40
xG 0.64–0.27 (70%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- McCarron – Bunting – Wiesblatt5:24
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Haula – Marchessault – Forsberg9:18
xG 0.56–0.37 (60%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Forsberg – Svechkov – Wood5:00
xG 0.24–0.06 (79%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Perbix11:45
xG 1.10–0.39 (74%)attempts 18–14goals 1–1
- Stastney – Blankenburg7:34
xG 0.39–0.05 (90%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Josi – Hague10:41
xG 0.64–0.49 (57%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Compher – Appleton – Soderblom9:09
xG 0.10–0.06 (61%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Kane – DeBrincat – Kasper10:25
xG 0.65–0.77 (46%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Larkin – Raymond – Finnie12:03
xG 0.35–0.70 (33%)attempts 13–19goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Copp – Danielson7:03
xG 0.03–0.45 (5%)attempts 3–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Gustafsson – Sandin-Pellikka13:21
xG 0.35–0.42 (46%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Hamonic – Johansson9:14
xG 0.47–0.59 (44%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Chiarot – Seider15:21
xG 0.27–0.59 (32%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).