Wed, Nov 26, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver
San Jose Sharks 0, Colorado Avalanche 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 05 | 017 | 04 | 026 |
| COL | 215 | 311 | 116 | 642 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:39COLRoss ColtonGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 19:07COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Cale Makar, Gabriel Landeskog · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 3:44COLSam MalinskiAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 4:51COLJosh MansonAssists: Victor Olofsson, Parker Kelly · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–4
- P2 5:00COLJoel KivirantaAssists: Ivan Ivan, Zakhar Bardakov · Snap, 0.18 xG0–5
- P3 16:15COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas · Snap, 0.23 xG0–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:30SJSAdam Gaudette: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:45SJSWilliam Eklund: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:18COLDevon Toews: Holding2 min
- P2 9:05SJSTy Dellandrea: Holding2 min
- P2 13:20COLGabriel Landeskog: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:04COLJoel Kiviranta: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:18COLBrock Nelson: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:35SJSVincent Desharnais: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Celebrini
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Wennberg – Kurashev6:33
xG 0.52–0.34 (61%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Gaudette – Dellandrea – Graf9:31
xG 0.37–0.55 (40%)attempts 4–15goals 0–1
- Reaves – Goodrow – Ostapchuk6:18
xG 0.02–0.45 (3%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Eklund – Smith – Celebrini11:37
xG 0.43–1.38 (24%)attempts 10–19goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Orlov – Dickinson3:09
xG 0.16–0.26 (39%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Dickinson11:42
xG 0.46–0.73 (38%)attempts 9–16goals 0–2
- Orlov – Liljegren12:22
xG 0.28–0.98 (22%)attempts 9–18goals 0–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas10:51
xG 1.22–0.33 (79%)attempts 22–11goals 2–0
- Olofsson – Kelly – Drury7:25
xG 0.84–0.41 (67%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Kiviranta – Bardakov – Ivan7:18
xG 0.26–0.11 (69%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Nelson – Landeskog – Colton8:06
xG 0.16–0.17 (49%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar11:46
xG 1.57–0.55 (74%)attempts 21–18goals 1–0
- Burns – Manson10:01
xG 0.53–0.06 (90%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Toews – Malinski2:37
xG 0.38–0.21 (64%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).