Wed, Nov 26, 2025·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
Montréal Canadiens 4, Utah Mammoth 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 27 | 05 | 25 | 417 |
| UTA | 06 | 313 | 015 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:38MTLZachary BolducPPAssists: Lane Hutson, Nick Suzuki · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 16:37MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Cole Caufield, Zachary Bolduc · Slap, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 9:43UTABarrett HaytonPPAssists: Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 11:58UTAKailer YamamotoAssists: Dylan Guenther, Logan Cooley · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 13:52UTAMichael CarconeAssists: Kevin Stenlund, John Marino · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–3
- P3 3:20MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Zachary Bolduc, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 4:47MTLIvan DemidovGWGAssists: Oliver Kapanen, Noah Dobson · Snap, 0.20 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:02UTAJack McBain: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:09UTAJohn Marino: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:20MTLMike Matheson: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:07MTLAlexandre Carrier: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 13:52MTLJared Davidson: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:52UTABrandon Tanev: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:52MTLJared Davidson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 1:53UTAKailer Yamamoto: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 7:57MTLOliver Kapanen: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against McBain
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestAnderson – Evans – Xhekaj8:42
xG 0.34–0.11 (76%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Bolduc12:17
xG 0.49–0.61 (44%)attempts 8–18goals 1–0
- Gallagher – Veleno – Davidson4:28
xG 0.00–0.66 (0%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
- Kapanen – Slafkovský – Demidov7:49
xG 0.00–0.71 (0%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStruble – Hutson8:08
xG 0.91–0.61 (60%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Carrier – Engstrom6:27
xG 0.12–0.04 (75%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Hutson – Engstrom3:10
xG 0.07–0.09 (45%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestStenlund – Tanev – Carcone7:10
xG 0.59–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton11:35
xG 0.53–0.00 (100%)attempts 17–3goals 0–0
- Yamamoto – Guenther – Cooley9:58
xG 0.84–0.32 (73%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Crouse – McBain – Peterka9:29
xG 0.18–0.34 (34%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Marino12:13
xG 1.58–0.41 (79%)attempts 24–6goals 1–1
- Sergachev – Durzi7:19
xG 0.31–0.07 (81%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Cole – DeSimone5:09
xG 0.16–0.13 (54%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Mammoth win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).