Wed, Nov 26, 2025·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Dallas Stars 3, Seattle Kraken 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 110 | 19 | 12 | 321 |
| SEA | 110 | 09 | 19 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:52DALRoope HintzAssists: Alexander Petrovic, Jamie Benn · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 9:06SEABrandon MontourAssists: Shane Wright, Berkly Catton · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 6:13DALEsa LindellAssists: Justin Hryckowian, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 0:18SEAVince DunnAssists: Jared McCann · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 14:16DALVladislav KolyachonokGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, Kyle Capobianco · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:49DALAlexander Petrovic: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 18:55SEAVince Dunn: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:50DALJamie Benn: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 16:33DALRoope Hintz: Holding2 min
- P2 16:33SEAVince Dunn: Holding2 min
- P3 2:17DALNathan Bastian: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 16:25DALAlexander Petrovic: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Rantanen – Johnston7:32
xG 0.30–0.08 (78%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Seguin – Hintz – Robertson9:01
xG 0.19–0.04 (82%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Rantanen – Robertson – Johnston2:32
xG 0.33–0.43 (43%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Faksa – Steel – Bastian4:04
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Heiskanen15:55
xG 0.62–0.50 (55%)attempts 7–16goals 0–2
- Petrovic – Bichsel13:08
xG 0.49–0.43 (53%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Capobianco – Kolyachonok9:05
xG 0.23–0.32 (42%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestMcCann – Wright – Catton5:13
xG 0.38–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Stephenson – McCann – Tolvanen3:55
xG 0.27–0.05 (85%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Wright – Catton3:04
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Kartye – Winterton5:49
xG 0.10–0.17 (37%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Evans10:33
xG 0.24–0.16 (61%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Larsson – Dunn14:22
xG 0.30–0.51 (37%)attempts 12–10goals 1–2
- Montour – Lindgren12:00
xG 0.30–0.65 (32%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).