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Ice Lab

Fri, Nov 28, 2025·TD Garden, Boston

New York Rangers 6, Boston Bruins 2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 84% of the time.

BOS winsNYR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYR21221728637
BOS070529221

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:28NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Will Cuylle · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
  2. P1 12:02NYRCarson SoucyAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Artemi Panarin · Slap, 0.06 xG2–0
  3. P2 14:22NYRMika ZibanejadPPGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Slap, 0.06 xG3–0
  4. P2 15:07NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Tip-in, 0.01 xG4–0
  5. P3 4:07BOSCasey MittelstadtAssists: Elias Lindholm · Snap, 0.28 xG4–1
  6. P3 5:49BOSMorgan GeekieAssists: Henri Jokiharju, Elias Lindholm · Tip-in, 0.04 xG4–2
  7. P3 16:36NYRAlexis LafrenièreENAssists: Scott Morrow · Wrist, 0.57 xG5–2
  8. P3 17:02NYRVladislav GavrikovAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Adam Fox · Tip-in, 0.10 xG6–2
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 19:19NYRWill Cuylle: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 12:21BOSMarat Khusnutdinov: High sticking2 min
  3. P2 14:15BOSHampus Lindholm: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
  4. P3 18:51NYRMatthew Robertson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
47% to win53% to win
← NYR attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Zibanejad
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYRBOS
37Shots on goal21
4.7Expected goals2.2
62Shot attempts56
31Faceoffs won25
3Power plays2
4Penalty minutes6
34Hits25
16Blocked shots9
15Giveaways16
2Takeaways3

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

New York Rangers

Forward lines

  1. bestZibanejad – Miller – Lafrenière12:30

    xG 0.65–0.31 (67%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0

  2. Brodzinski – Berard – Laba8:11

    xG 0.44–0.33 (57%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0

  3. Carrick – Raddysh – Edstrom10:22

    xG 0.55–0.46 (54%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0

  4. Trocheck – Panarin – Cuylle11:22

    xG 0.66–0.59 (53%)attempts 17–11goals 2–2

Defence pairs

  1. bestGavrikov – Fox18:47

    xG 0.86–0.27 (76%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1

  2. Soucy – Gavrikov2:06

    xG 0.43–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0

  3. Soucy – Schneider16:26

    xG 0.95–0.67 (59%)attempts 17–20goals 2–0

Boston Bruins

Forward lines

  1. bestKuraly – Tufte – Eyssimont8:02

    xG 0.65–0.47 (58%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1

  2. Mittelstadt – Khusnutdinov – Merkulov6:26

    xG 0.30–0.22 (58%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1

  3. Jeannot – Kastelic – Minten11:52

    xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0

  4. Kuraly – Eyssimont – Steeves3:12

    xG 0.10–0.08 (56%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestPeeke – Lohrei3:51

    xG 0.46–0.06 (88%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0

  2. Jokiharju – Aspirot2:05

    xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0

  3. Zadorov – Aspirot3:00

    xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 2.2 xGNYR 4.7 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSNYR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 62/100 · #553 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.72 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 47% (winner's lowest chance)
NYR 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 84% of the time.

BOS winsNYR wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).