Fri, Nov 28, 2025·Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul
Colorado Avalanche 2, Minnesota Wild 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 114 | 010 | 114 | 03 | 1 | 241 |
| MIN | 012 | 217 | 010 | 00 | 2 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:54COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Artturi Lehkonen · Snap, 0.25 xG1–0
- P2 12:00MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Zeev Buium, Mats Zuccarello · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 18:03MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Ryan Hartman, Yakov Trenin · Snap, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 11:08COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MIN Mats Zuccarello scored
- 2. COL Martin Necas scored
- 3. MIN Kirill Kaprizov stopped
- 4. COL Nathan MacKinnon stopped
- 5. MIN Matt Boldy scored
- 6. COL Cale Makar stopped
Penalties (2)
- P1 1:47COLSam Malinski: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:34MINZeev Buium: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – Lehkonen – MacKinnon3:01
xG 0.40–0.28 (58%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas13:45
xG 0.75–0.67 (53%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Nelson – Colton – Necas2:48
xG 0.13–0.05 (71%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kiviranta – Bardakov – Ivan4:57
xG 0.05–0.11 (30%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar17:59
xG 1.24–0.54 (70%)attempts 32–18goals 1–0
- Girard – Malinski12:19
xG 0.62–0.44 (59%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Burns – Manson11:59
xG 0.68–0.72 (48%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHartman – Trenin – Kaprizov3:21
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Pitlick – Jones – Sturm4:18
xG 0.36–0.03 (93%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy13:54
xG 0.62–0.47 (57%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Hartman – Trenin – Ohgren5:10
xG 0.35–0.42 (45%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Middleton17:23
xG 1.16–1.00 (54%)attempts 21–28goals 1–0
- Brodin – Faber20:59
xG 1.34–1.22 (52%)attempts 27–29goals 0–2
- Bogosian – Buium12:21
xG 0.49–0.51 (49%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).