Fri, Nov 28, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New Jersey Devils 5, Buffalo Sabres 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 19 | 18 | 36 | 523 |
| BUF | 010 | 015 | 017 | 042 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:07NJDNico HischierGWGAssists: Timo Meier · Snap, 0.30 xG1–0
- P2 7:45NJDArseny GritsyukAssists: Ondrej Palat, Dawson Mercer · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–0
- P3 1:39NJDBrenden DillonAssists: Connor Brown, Paul Cotter · Slap, 0.06 xG3–0
- P3 5:22NJDPaul CotterAssists: Brenden Dillon · Backhand, 0.17 xG4–0
- P3 16:49NJDArseny GritsyukAssists: Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:24NJDStefan Noesen: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:24BUFTage Thompson: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:01NJDCody Glass: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:39BUFJack Quinn: Holding2 min
- P2 15:13NJDArseny Gritsyuk: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krebs won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Gritsyuk – Mercer9:03
xG 0.67–0.60 (53%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Brown – Glass – Cotter11:14
xG 0.52–0.63 (45%)attempts 9–16goals 2–0
- Meier – Bratt – Hischier12:41
xG 0.72–0.87 (45%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Noesen – Glendening – Lammikko5:51
xG 0.00–0.38 (0%)attempts 0–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Dillon – White12:24
xG 0.61–0.59 (51%)attempts 11–17goals 3–0
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler19:27
xG 0.63–0.82 (43%)attempts 11–28goals 1–0
- Hughes – Nemec16:08
xG 0.66–1.52 (30%)attempts 12–31goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestKozak – Ostlund – Benson9:05
xG 0.73–0.15 (83%)attempts 18–3goals 0–1
- Greenway – Malenstyn – Krebs8:34
xG 0.40–0.08 (83%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Zucker – McLeod – Quinn12:32
xG 0.86–0.69 (56%)attempts 19–11goals 0–3
- Tuch – Thompson – Doan8:13
xG 0.17–0.76 (18%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBryson – Power11:11
xG 0.87–0.07 (93%)attempts 21–4goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Power4:22
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Timmins – Byram12:51
xG 0.80–0.57 (59%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).