Fri, Nov 28, 2025·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Calgary Flames 5, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 214 | 210 | 110 | 534 |
| FLA | 220 | 08 | 113 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:54FLAEvan RodriguesAssists: Sam Reinhart, Jesper Boqvist · Snap, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 2:58FLASam BennettAssists: A.J. Greer, Carter Verhaeghe · Snap, 0.23 xG0–2
- P1 5:35CGYYan KuznetsovAssists: Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P1 10:41CGYMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Mikael Backlund, Connor Zary · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 0:55CGYMorgan FrostPPAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Nazem Kadri · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–2
- P2 18:44CGYNazem KadriGWGAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Joel Farabee · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 11:54FLABrad MarchandAssists: Sam Reinhart, Anton Lundell · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 18:57CGYJoel FarabeeENAssists: Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.56 xG5–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:35CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:17FLAAaron Ekblad: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:17FLAA.J. Greer: Holding2 min
- P2 13:47CGYRasmus Andersson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Farabee – Sharangovich12:21
xG 0.72–0.60 (55%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Zary14:38
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
- Huberdeau – Frost – Coronato9:08
xG 0.32–0.57 (36%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
- Lomberg – Beecher – Klapka6:20
xG 0.23–1.02 (19%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanley – Pachal12:54
xG 0.73–0.33 (69%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Andersson – Bahl16:53
xG 0.74–0.56 (57%)attempts 20–23goals 1–0
- Weegar – Kuznetsov17:35
xG 0.34–2.02 (14%)attempts 14–32goals 1–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReinhart – Rodrigues – Boqvist5:49
xG 1.06–0.37 (74%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Marchand – Reinhart – Lundell4:19
xG 0.53–0.20 (73%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Rodrigues – Boqvist – Samoskevich2:43
xG 0.25–0.03 (89%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kunin – Gregor – Devine6:27
xG 0.19–0.04 (84%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Mikkola17:49
xG 1.52–0.42 (78%)attempts 30–16goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling18:02
xG 1.32–1.02 (57%)attempts 23–21goals 2–1
- Petry – Balinskis10:57
xG 0.43–0.38 (53%)attempts 16–11goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).