Fri, Nov 28, 2025·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 18 | 07 | 28 | 11 | 424 |
| CBJ | 18 | 213 | 08 | 00 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:10PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 13:40CBJSean MonahanAssists: Brendan Smith, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 3:51CBJBrendan GaunceSHAssists: Miles Wood, Zach Werenski · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 19:56CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Charlie Coyle · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 0:13PITBryan RustAssists: Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 8:28PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Tommy Novak, Parker Wotherspoon · Snap, 0.26 xG3–3
- OT 0:59PITKris LetangGWGAssists: Tommy Novak · Snap, 0.24 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:25CBJZachary Aston-Reese: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:23PITKevin Hayes: Holding2 min
- P2 2:46CBJKent Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:12PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHeinen – Koivunen – Kindel8:17
xG 0.10–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Crosby – Hayes – Rust14:12
xG 1.25–1.23 (50%)attempts 16–12goals 2–0
- Koppanen – Dewar – Lizotte8:06
xG 0.63–0.64 (50%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Malkin – Mantha – Novak11:18
xG 0.07–0.32 (19%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWotherspoon – Shea2:35
xG 0.26–0.16 (62%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
- Dumba – Graves13:51
xG 0.69–0.65 (51%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1
- Letang – Shea14:04
xG 0.24–0.31 (43%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMonahan – Sillinger – Pinelli10:47
xG 1.02–0.10 (91%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Coyle – Wood – Lundeström12:52
xG 1.22–1.10 (53%)attempts 11–17goals 0–2
- Gaunce – Aston-Reese – Chinakhov6:33
xG 0.01–0.10 (5%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Voronkov – Johnson – Fantilli9:38
xG 0.16–0.67 (20%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Mateychuk12:42
xG 0.64–0.08 (88%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Werenski – Provorov17:15
xG 0.94–1.47 (39%)attempts 16–18goals 1–3
- Smith – Fabbro12:18
xG 0.27–0.85 (24%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).