Sat, Nov 29, 2025·TD Garden, Boston
Detroit Red Wings 2, Boston Bruins 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 04 | 05 | 213 | 04 | 0 | 226 |
| BOS | 05 | 19 | 15 | 01 | 1 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:25BOSMorgan GeekieAssists: Elias Lindholm · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 6:38DETLucas RaymondAssists: Dylan Larkin, Emmitt Finnie · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 13:39BOSMorgan GeekiePPAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Elias Lindholm · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 18:06DETMichael RasmussenAssists: Patrick Kane, Dylan Larkin · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DET Lucas Raymond stopped
- 2. BOS Casey Mittelstadt scored
- 3. DET Patrick Kane stopped
- 4. BOS Morgan Geekie stopped
- 5. DET Alex DeBrincat stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:20BOSJonathan Aspirot: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:03BOSNikita Zadorov: Holding2 min
- P1 19:35BOSMark Kastelic: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:35DETMoritz Seider: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:00DETBen Chiarot: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:16BOSHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min
- P3 7:24BOSMark Kastelic: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:24DETBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:12DETBen Chiarot: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:04BOSAndrew Peeke: Tripping2 min
- OT 1:24BOSElias Lindholm: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Mittelstadt
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestSoderblom – Kasper – Danielson7:51
xG 0.65–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–0goals 0–0
- Compher – Appleton – Rasmussen5:19
xG 0.55–0.12 (81%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Kane – Copp – DeBrincat10:12
xG 0.15–0.28 (34%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Larkin – Raymond – Finnie11:24
xG 0.37–0.56 (39%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Johansson7:01
xG 0.37–0.23 (62%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
- Seider – Edvinsson16:56
xG 0.80–0.70 (53%)attempts 23–9goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Johansson2:04
xG 0.12–0.04 (76%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Geekie – Steeves7:31
xG 0.47–0.15 (76%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Zacha – Mittelstadt – Khusnutdinov11:28
xG 0.45–0.33 (58%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Kuraly – Eyssimont – Viel7:01
xG 0.14–0.51 (22%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Jeannot – Kastelic – Minten9:50
xG 0.21–0.83 (21%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPeeke – Aspirot9:28
xG 0.37–0.10 (79%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Peeke – Lohrei2:30
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Peeke5:43
xG 0.24–0.10 (72%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).