Sat, Nov 29, 2025·Prudential Center, Newark
Philadelphia Flyers 5, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 18 | 312 | 112 | 532 |
| NJD | 16 | 114 | 112 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:18PHIOwen TippettAssists: Christian Dvorak, Trevor Zegras · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 12:09NJDSimon NemecAssists: Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier · Slap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 0:53PHIMatvei MichkovAssists: Travis Konecny, Travis Sanheim · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 3:16PHIMatvei MichkovAssists: Travis Konecny, Cam York · Deflected, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 13:03PHITrevor ZegrasGWGAssists: Owen Tippett · Slap, 0.11 xG4–1
- P2 19:33NJDTimo MeierPPAssists: Dawson Mercer, Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–2
- P3 6:28NJDDawson MercerUnassisted · Backhand, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 19:11PHIOwen TippettENUnassisted · Other, 0.61 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:48NJDSimon Nemec: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:45PHIMatvei Michkov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:04NJDBrenden Dillon: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 16:04NJDBrenden Dillon: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:04PHISean Couturier: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:38PHIMatvei Michkov: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 6:57PHIGarnet Hathaway: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 13:16PHICam York: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Abols won the faceoff against Glass
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Tippett – Zegras10:50
xG 0.82–0.41 (67%)attempts 13–17goals 2–1
- Couturier – Brink – Michkov8:42
xG 0.48–0.14 (77%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Hathaway – Abols – Grebenkin8:05
xG 0.18–0.15 (54%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Konecny – Cates – Foerster10:00
xG 0.31–0.84 (27%)attempts 5–23goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndrae – Drysdale14:01
xG 0.49–0.33 (60%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Seeler – Zamula11:39
xG 0.65–0.49 (57%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
- Seeler – Drysdale2:32
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Gritsyuk – Mercer9:13
xG 0.36–0.23 (61%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Meier – Bratt – Hischier13:08
xG 0.60–0.73 (45%)attempts 19–12goals 1–1
- Noesen – Glendening – Lammikko6:46
xG 0.00–0.56 (0%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Brown – Glass – Cotter8:39
xG 0.01–0.58 (1%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Siegenthaler17:06
xG 0.95–0.57 (63%)attempts 29–14goals 1–0
- Dillon – White11:43
xG 0.00–0.30 (1%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Hughes – Nemec15:04
xG 0.57–1.41 (29%)attempts 20–19goals 1–4
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).