Sat, Nov 29, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
San Jose Sharks 3, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 17 | 29 | 05 | 321 |
| VGK | 19 | 310 | 05 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:34SJSWill SmithAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Dmitry Orlov · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 16:13VGKTomas HertlAssists: Pavel Dorofeyev, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 5:36VGKColton SissonsAssists: Keegan Kolesar, Cole Reinhardt · Poke, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 7:02VGKMitch MarnerAssists: Brett Howden, Mark Stone · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 12:38VGKTomas HertlPPGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Jack Eichel · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–4
- P2 14:40SJSWill SmithPPAssists: Macklin Celebrini · Snap, 0.24 xG2–4
- P2 19:35SJSWilliam EklundAssists: Adam Gaudette, Mario Ferraro · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 1:34SJSDmitry Orlov: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:02SJSBarclay Goodrow: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:06VGKCole Reinhardt: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:25VGKBrayden McNabb: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ostapchuk won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Reaves – Goodrow – Ostapchuk6:56
xG 0.05–0.13 (28%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Wennberg – Gaudette – Eklund14:02
xG 0.67–0.81 (45%)attempts 17–14goals 1–1
- Kurashev – Dellandrea – Graf11:30
xG 0.20–0.55 (26%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Toffoli – Smith – Celebrini13:56
xG 0.47–0.88 (35%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Ferraro16:05
xG 0.92–0.67 (58%)attempts 23–13goals 2–0
- Orlov – Klingberg2:08
xG 0.01–0.20 (4%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Orlov – Liljegren15:05
xG 0.29–0.59 (33%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Marner – Howden11:32
xG 0.58–0.21 (73%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Sissons – Kolesar – Reinhardt9:02
xG 0.40–0.09 (81%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Barbashev – Eichel – Bowman12:17
xG 0.64–0.41 (61%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Hertl – Dorofeyev – Holtz11:26
xG 0.52–0.45 (54%)attempts 13–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore19:53
xG 0.99–0.51 (66%)attempts 24–17goals 0–1
- Hutton – Korczak12:22
xG 0.50–0.19 (73%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Hanifin – Whitecloud19:07
xG 0.82–0.77 (51%)attempts 17–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).