Sun, Nov 30, 2025·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Ottawa Senators 1, Dallas Stars 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 07 | 14 | 05 | 116 |
| DAL | 05 | 36 | 315 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:58DALMavrik BourqueAssists: Ilya Lyubushkin, Oskar Bäck · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 8:36OTTJake SandersonAssists: David Perron, Nick Cousins · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 9:20DALJason RobertsonGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 15:33DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.18 xG1–3
- P3 2:52DALWyatt JohnstonPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Roope Hintz · Snap, 0.27 xG1–4
- P3 7:24DALJamie BennAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Wyatt Johnston · Snap, 0.28 xG1–5
- P3 15:41DALWyatt JohnstonPPAssists: Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.22 xG1–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:08OTTMichael Amadio: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:41DALAlexander Petrovic: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:19DALKyle Capobianco: Interference2 min
- P3 0:35DALMiro Heiskanen: Holding2 min
- P3 2:13OTTJordan Spence: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:42OTTDylan Cozens: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:42DALRoope Hintz: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:42OTTDylan Cozens: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:26OTTMichael Amadio: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pinto won the faceoff against Johnston
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Cousins – Greig7:50
xG 0.44–0.22 (67%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Zetterlund – Tkachuk – Cozens7:26
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Giroux – Amadio – Pinto7:43
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Eller – Batherson – Stützle4:49
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub12:22
xG 0.70–0.12 (85%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Jensen – Matinpalo14:59
xG 0.80–0.29 (73%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Kleven – Zub2:38
xG 0.06–0.12 (34%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Rantanen – Johnston10:23
xG 0.46–0.28 (63%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Seguin – Hintz – Robertson9:55
xG 0.27–0.30 (47%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Faksa – Steel9:00
xG 0.20–0.58 (26%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Bäck – Bourque – Hryckowian8:52
xG 0.12–0.66 (16%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Heiskanen14:35
xG 0.83–0.16 (83%)attempts 15–7goals 3–0
- Petrovic – Capobianco4:30
xG 0.33–0.02 (95%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Petrovic – Lindell2:32
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).