Tue, Dec 2, 2025·Madison Square Garden, New York
Dallas Stars 2, New York Rangers 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 110 | 012 | 14 | 00 | 226 |
| NYR | 110 | 011 | 118 | 12 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:51NYRCarson SoucyAssists: Noah Laba, Conor Sheary · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 9:04DALKyle CapobiancoUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 9:32DALMikko RantanenAssists: Wyatt Johnston · Snap, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 17:47NYRWill CuylleAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 1:09NYRVladislav GavrikovGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:41NYRCarson Soucy: Cross checking2 min
- P1 11:40DALAlexander Petrovic: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:37DALJustin Hryckowian: Interference2 min
- P2 15:10NYRCarson Soucy: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:59DALOskar Bäck: Holding2 min
- P3 4:13DALSam Steel: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hintz won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Hintz – Robertson6:27
xG 0.29–0.06 (82%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Faksa – Steel3:18
xG 0.11–0.04 (74%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Steel – Johnston6:23
xG 0.34–0.30 (54%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Hintz – Robertson – Bourque2:05
xG 0.18–0.18 (49%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLyubushkin – Kolyachonok8:41
xG 0.58–0.10 (86%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Petrovic – Heiskanen3:03
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen12:09
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBerard – Cuylle – Laba8:01
xG 0.54–0.09 (85%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Panarin – Lafrenière12:30
xG 0.35–0.04 (89%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Carrick – Sheary – Raddysh5:30
xG 0.11–0.13 (47%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Miller – Brodzinski10:09
xG 0.34–1.10 (24%)attempts 11–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestRobertson – Morrow9:29
xG 0.64–0.16 (80%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Schneider16:55
xG 0.41–0.43 (49%)attempts 19–17goals 0–2
- Soucy – Borgen11:45
xG 0.32–0.55 (37%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).