Tue, Dec 2, 2025·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Calgary Flames 1, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 010 | 010 | 18 | 128 |
| NSH | 19 | 37 | 112 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:24NSHReid SchaeferAssists: Fedor Svechkov, Nicolas Hague · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 5:04NSHSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Luke Evangelista, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 14:25NSHJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Roman Josi, Nicolas Hague · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 15:32NSHOzzy WiesblattAssists: Michael Bunting, Spencer Stastney · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–4
- P3 2:59NSHMichael BuntingAssists: Adam Wilsby, Tyson Jost · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–5
- P3 13:39CGYMorgan FrostPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Jonathan Huberdeau · Snap, 0.21 xG1–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 7:36NSHAdam Wilsby: Holding2 min
- P1 12:03CGYConnor Zary: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P1 15:26NSHOzzy Wiesblatt: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:26CGYJoel Farabee: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:06NSHNicolas Hague: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:39CGYBrayden Pachal: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:39NSHReid Schaefer: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:42CGYBlake Coleman: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:42NSHOzzy Wiesblatt: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:30NSHNicolas Hague: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 13:55CGYBlake Coleman: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:50NSHRoman Josi: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:43CGYMacKenzie Weegar: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Frost won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Hunt – Coronato3:52
xG 0.17–0.08 (69%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Kadri – Farabee – Sharangovich7:32
xG 0.29–0.26 (52%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Backlund – Coleman – Zary6:08
xG 0.39–0.38 (51%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Frost – Coronato6:24
xG 0.12–0.18 (39%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Weegar – Hanley2:18
xG 0.11–0.07 (61%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Hanley – Pachal10:29
xG 0.17–0.18 (48%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Weegar – Kuznetsov13:42
xG 0.69–0.92 (43%)attempts 13–11goals 0–2
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – O'Reilly – Evangelista9:58
xG 0.45–0.16 (74%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Bunting – Jost – Wiesblatt5:36
xG 0.49–0.29 (63%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
- Haula – Marchessault – Forsberg7:59
xG 0.28–0.18 (62%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Svechkov – Schaefer – Wood5:40
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Hague15:59
xG 0.95–0.52 (65%)attempts 20–16goals 3–0
- Skjei – Wilsby13:47
xG 0.52–0.32 (62%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Stastney – Blankenburg9:54
xG 0.60–0.40 (60%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).