Tue, Dec 2, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Vegas Golden Knights 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 18 | 110 | 16 | 06 | 1 | 330 |
| VGK | 18 | 19 | 19 | 02 | 2 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:27VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Braeden Bowman, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 1:23CHIOliver MooreAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Frank Nazar · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 11:22CHITyler BertuzziUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 17:19VGKBen HuttonAssists: Mark Stone · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 4:45CHIConnor BedardAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Ryan Greene · Snap, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 17:32VGKBraeden BowmanAssists: Shea Theodore, Ivan Barbashev · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CHI Teuvo Teravainen stopped
- 2. VGK Pavel Dorofeyev scored
- 3. CHI Connor Bedard scored
- 4. VGK Jack Eichel stopped
- 5. CHI Ryan Donato stopped
- 6. VGK Mitch Marner stopped
- 7. CHI Frank Nazar stopped
- 8. VGK Shea Theodore scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:46VGKIvan Barbashev: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:25VGKShea Theodore: Holding2 min
- P2 5:02CHISam Rinzel: Holding2 min
- P2 6:43VGKCarter Hart: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:22VGKPavel Dorofeyev: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 11:44CHIFrank Nazar: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:45VGKZach Whitecloud: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Bedard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Nazar – Moore10:25
xG 0.55–0.22 (72%)attempts 8–8goals 2–1
- Donato – Mikheyev – Dach2:51
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Dickinson – Mikheyev8:31
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Burakovsky – Greene – Bedard11:30
xG 0.40–0.48 (46%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – Rinzel2:07
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Rinzel2:17
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Murphy – Kaiser3:51
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestBarbashev – Eichel – Bowman13:59
xG 0.79–0.59 (57%)attempts 10–16goals 2–0
- Saad – Hertl – Dorofeyev11:20
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Sissons – Kolesar – Reinhardt7:02
xG 0.15–0.14 (52%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Stone – Marner – Howden10:06
xG 0.42–0.46 (48%)attempts 11–7goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Korczak12:39
xG 0.34–0.24 (58%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Hanifin – Whitecloud16:49
xG 0.44–0.48 (48%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
- McNabb – Theodore15:36
xG 0.60–0.73 (45%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).