Tue, Dec 2, 2025·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Washington Capitals 3, Los Angeles Kings 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 112 | 08 | 25 | 325 |
| LAK | 03 | 114 | 08 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:50WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: Ryan Leonard, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–0
- P2 5:28LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Anze Kopitar, Trevor Moore · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 1:18WSHAnthony BeauvillierGWGAssists: Connor McMichael, Alex Ovechkin · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 18:18WSHAliaksei ProtasENAssists: Martin Fehérváry, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.76 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:41LAKAndrei Kuzmenko: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:00WSHRyan Leonard: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:25LAKQuinton Byfield: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:05WSHBrandon Duhaime: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:05WSHBrandon Duhaime: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:05LAKJoel Edmundson: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Byfield won the faceoff against McMichael
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Protas – Sourdif11:30
xG 0.43–0.03 (94%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Milano – Lapierre – Frank4:20
xG 0.06–0.03 (70%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Beauvillier8:30
xG 0.19–0.30 (39%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Duhaime – McMichael – Leonard10:33
xG 0.05–0.63 (8%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Sandin10:57
xG 0.49–0.25 (66%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry12:49
xG 0.15–0.12 (55%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Roy – Sandin3:00
xG 0.04–0.12 (27%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Fiala – Byfield10:35
xG 0.59–0.21 (74%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Danault – Laferriere – Kuzmenko8:15
xG 0.17–0.17 (49%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Perry – Turcotte – Malott4:47
xG 0.30–0.35 (46%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Moore8:14
xG 0.10–0.19 (34%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Moverare9:23
xG 0.47–0.20 (70%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Anderson2:10
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Clarke10:08
xG 0.24–0.02 (92%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).