Wed, Dec 3, 2025·Centre Bell, Montreal
Winnipeg Jets 2, Montréal Canadiens 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 111 | 112 | 08 | 01 | 0 | 232 |
| MTL | 011 | 28 | 07 | 05 | 1 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:35WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Kyle Connor, Dylan DeMelo · Snap, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 9:59MTLJuraj SlafkovskýPPAssists: Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 11:53WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Mark Scheifele · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 14:03MTLOliver KapanenAssists: Ivan Demidov, Alexandre Texier · Snap, 0.15 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. MTL Cole Caufield scored
- 2. WPG Kyle Connor stopped
- 3. MTL Alexandre Texier stopped
- 4. WPG Mark Scheifele stopped
- 5. MTL Nick Suzuki stopped
- 6. WPG Gabriel Vilardi stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 15:00MTLArber Xhekaj: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:00WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:31WPGTanner Pearson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:34MTLIvan Demidov: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Vilardi16:34
xG 1.30–1.00 (56%)attempts 24–19goals 2–1
- Toews – Namestnikov – Perfetti13:18
xG 0.54–0.82 (40%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Pearson – Barron – Koepke6:11
xG 0.10–0.47 (17%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Iafallo11:08
xG 0.17–0.67 (21%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Samberg – Pionk19:49
xG 0.73–0.91 (44%)attempts 23–19goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey22:39
xG 1.16–1.44 (45%)attempts 24–25goals 0–1
- Stanley – Salomonsson10:55
xG 0.49–0.98 (33%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTexier – Kapanen – Demidov15:19
xG 1.12–0.32 (78%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Veleno – Bolduc – Davidson7:19
xG 0.18–0.02 (89%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Evans11:14
xG 0.68–0.55 (55%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský14:56
xG 1.02–1.34 (43%)attempts 20–22goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestStruble – Hutson14:58
xG 0.85–0.31 (74%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Carrier – Xhekaj11:16
xG 0.60–0.15 (79%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Carrier – Hutson4:33
xG 0.20–0.14 (60%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).