Wed, Dec 3, 2025·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Washington Capitals 7, San Jose Sharks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 412 | 214 | 15 | 731 |
| SJS | 011 | 07 | 16 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:25WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Matt Roy · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 10:05WSHSonny MilanoGWGAssists: Declan Chisholm, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 13:35WSHRyan LeonardAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Brandon Duhaime · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P1 17:07WSHBrandon DuhaimeSHAssists: Aliaksei Protas · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–0
- P2 2:41WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Ryan Leonard, Jakob Chychrun · Slap, 0.15 xG5–0
- P2 19:34WSHDylan StromeAssists: Matt Roy, Ryan Leonard · Tip-in, 0.08 xG6–0
- P3 1:03WSHRyan LeonardAssists: Matt Roy, Charlie Lindgren · Backhand, 0.08 xG7–0
- P3 12:58SJSPavol RegendaPPAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Adam Gaudette · Tip-in, 0.08 xG7–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:00WSHAnthony Beauvillier: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:05SJSWill Smith: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 15:48WSHAnthony Beauvillier: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:59SJSMario Ferraro: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 4:05WSHNic Dowd: Holding2 min
- P3 11:36WSHSonny Milano: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:58WSHAlex Ovechkin: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dellandrea won the faceoff against Dowd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – McMichael – Protas7:40
xG 0.56–0.10 (85%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Beauvillier9:24
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Dowd – Frank – Leonard7:32
xG 0.16–0.12 (56%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Milano – Duhaime – Lapierre8:23
xG 0.30–0.32 (49%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Chychrun12:30
xG 0.77–0.15 (84%)attempts 15–8goals 3–0
- van Riemsdyk – Chisholm13:53
xG 0.65–0.50 (57%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Chychrun – Sandin2:04
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWennberg – Eklund – Graf3:52
xG 0.21–0.15 (59%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Wennberg – Gaudette – Eklund7:19
xG 0.34–0.30 (54%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Reaves – Goodrow – Gaudette2:19
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Kurashev – Regenda – Smith3:39
xG 0.05–0.11 (31%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Iorio – Dickinson13:56
xG 0.39–0.49 (45%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Orlov – Liljegren12:20
xG 0.38–0.57 (40%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
- Klingberg – Ferraro15:23
xG 0.29–0.68 (30%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).