Thu, Dec 4, 2025·TD Garden, Boston
St. Louis Blues 2, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 010 | 115 | 114 | 239 |
| BOS | 214 | 38 | 05 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:30BOSAlex SteevesAssists: Morgan Geekie, Elias Lindholm · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 11:25BOSMorgan GeekieAssists: Elias Lindholm, Alex Steeves · Snap, 0.19 xG0–2
- P2 1:59STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Colton Parayko · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 6:04BOSViktor ArvidssonGWGAssists: Mason Lohrei · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 12:26BOSPavel ZachaAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Mason Lohrei · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–4
- P2 19:59BOSPavel ZachaPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Morgan Geekie · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–5
- P3 9:07STLPius SuterAssists: Dylan Holloway, Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 15:17BOSTanner Jeannot: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:45STLJake Neighbours: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 10:24STLPavel Buchnevich: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:16BOSElias Lindholm: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sundqvist won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Sundqvist – Joseph7:59
xG 0.52–0.11 (83%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Kyrou – Suter – Holloway10:01
xG 1.08–0.77 (58%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Schenn – Thomas – Neighbours7:23
xG 0.23–0.06 (80%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Thomas – Neighbours – Kaskimaki2:35
xG 0.07–0.18 (27%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Mailloux10:08
xG 0.84–0.12 (88%)attempts 18–5goals 0–1
- Fowler – Parayko6:34
xG 0.65–0.08 (89%)attempts 14–1goals 1–0
- Broberg – Mailloux7:03
xG 0.19–0.09 (68%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestJeannot – Kastelic – Minten12:09
xG 0.68–0.53 (56%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Geekie – Steeves12:49
xG 0.49–0.41 (54%)attempts 7–9goals 2–0
- Kuraly – Eyssimont – Khusnutdinov11:01
xG 0.44–0.56 (44%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Arvidsson – Zacha – Mittelstadt11:12
xG 0.28–0.51 (35%)attempts 10–17goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- Soderstrom – Lohrei12:28
xG 0.41–0.62 (40%)attempts 9–19goals 2–0
- Lindholm – Peeke18:57
xG 0.36–0.61 (37%)attempts 9–20goals 0–1
- Zadorov – Aspirot18:17
xG 0.72–1.33 (35%)attempts 14–23goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).