Thu, Dec 4, 2025·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Nashville Predators 2, Florida Panthers 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 09 | 05 | 112 | 13 | 229 |
| FLA | 19 | 016 | 03 | 03 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:26FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Sam Bennett, A.J. Greer · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P3 13:41NSHRyan O'ReillyAssists: Michael Bunting, Nicolas Hague · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–1
- OT 4:03NSHSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:59FLAEvan Rodrigues: Interference2 min
- P1 2:59NSHFedor Svechkov: Embellishment2 min
- P1 3:31FLABrad Marchand: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:08NSHMatthew Wood: Interference2 min
- P2 3:03FLAA.J. Greer: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:03NSHSteven Stamkos: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:30NSHNick Blankenburg: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 15:48NSHSpencer Stastney: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:56FLAGustav Forsling: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:30FLANiko Mikkola: Interference2 min
- P3 6:52NSHSpencer Stastney: Holding2 min
- P3 8:20FLABrad Marchand: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Rodrigues
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMarchessault – Forsberg – Svechkov2:17
xG 0.26–0.14 (65%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Haula – Marchessault – Forsberg3:31
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- McCarron – Svechkov – Schaefer2:25
xG 0.00–0.05 (8%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – Evangelista6:49
xG 0.28–0.36 (43%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Wilsby9:50
xG 0.45–0.25 (64%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Josi – Wilsby3:10
xG 0.24–0.14 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Stastney – Blankenburg8:17
xG 0.28–0.19 (60%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Bennett – Greer8:41
xG 0.37–0.18 (68%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Marchand – Lundell – Samoskevich8:44
xG 0.37–0.42 (47%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Kunin – Gregor – Studnicka5:06
xG 0.16–0.44 (26%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Reinhart – Rodrigues – Boqvist8:52
xG 0.08–0.47 (14%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling12:51
xG 0.84–0.70 (54%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
- Sebrango – Balinskis8:30
xG 0.20–0.22 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Jones – Mikkola11:19
xG 0.21–0.69 (24%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).