Thu, Dec 4, 2025·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Detroit Red Wings 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 6 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 06 | 316 | 211 | 00 | 0 | 533 |
| CBJ | 18 | 39 | 114 | 01 | 2 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:55CBJIvan ProvorovAssists: Brendan Gaunce · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 1:09DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 5:18CBJKirill MarchenkoPPAssists: Zach Werenski, Sean Monahan · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 7:11CBJKent JohnsonAssists: Cole Sillinger, Denton Mateychuk · Snap, 0.16 xG1–3
- P2 9:08DETLucas RaymondPPAssists: Axel Sandin-Pellikka, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 10:20DETJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Andrew Copp, Emmitt Finnie · Poke, 0.15 xG3–3
- P2 13:50CBJAdam FantilliPPAssists: Zach Werenski, Sean Monahan · Slap, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 9:35DETPatrick KaneAssists: Moritz Seider, Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–4
- P3 11:38DETAlex DeBrincatUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–4
- P3 18:29CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Zach Werenski, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. CBJ Kent Johnson scored
- 2. DET James van Riemsdyk stopped
- 3. CBJ Adam Fantilli stopped
- 4. DET Lucas Raymond stopped
- 5. CBJ Kirill Marchenko scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:36CBJBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:38CBJIvan Provorov: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P2 5:06DETAxel Sandin-Pellikka: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:52CBJDmitri Voronkov: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 13:25DETElmer Soderblom: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:35CBJDmitri Voronkov: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:10DETMoritz Seider: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Compher – Rasmussen8:43
xG 0.58–0.15 (80%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Kane – Copp – DeBrincat11:37
xG 0.77–0.40 (66%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Larkin – Raymond – Finnie10:14
xG 0.66–0.63 (51%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Soderblom – Kasper – Danielson7:14
xG 0.17–0.16 (52%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Edvinsson20:04
xG 1.58–0.48 (77%)attempts 19–15goals 2–0
- Bernard-Docker – Johansson9:28
xG 0.67–0.37 (64%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Johansson3:26
xG 0.07–0.13 (35%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMonahan – Johnson – Sillinger10:43
xG 0.57–0.37 (60%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Coyle – Wood – Lundeström8:25
xG 0.50–0.43 (54%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli14:06
xG 0.77–0.82 (49%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Gaunce – Chinakhov – Del Bel Belluz5:51
xG 0.32–0.46 (41%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Mateychuk16:35
xG 1.03–0.94 (52%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Smith – Fabbro8:23
xG 0.18–0.21 (46%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Werenski – Provorov19:03
xG 0.97–1.25 (44%)attempts 29–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).