Thu, Dec 4, 2025·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Minnesota Wild 1, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 011 | 17 | 09 | 127 |
| CGY | 06 | 115 | 310 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:21CGYJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Matt Coronato · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 16:51MINYakov TreninAssists: Zach Bogosian, Zeev Buium · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 3:33CGYMatt CoronatoGWGAssists: Morgan Frost, Joel Hanley · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 6:18CGYConnor ZaryAssists: Blake Coleman, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–3
- P3 19:00CGYRasmus AnderssonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:56CGYMikael Backlund: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:28CGYBlake Coleman: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:31CGYNazem Kadri: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 10:58MINBrock Faber: Interference2 min
- P3 11:24CGYNazem Kadri: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Frost won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov4:27
xG 0.47–0.16 (75%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Trenin – Sturm6:04
xG 0.41–0.13 (76%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy4:06
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy4:55
xG 0.42–0.47 (47%)attempts 6–4goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Spurgeon – Middleton12:16
xG 0.76–0.75 (50%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Brodin – Faber14:10
xG 0.24–0.45 (35%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Buium11:04
xG 0.54–1.06 (34%)attempts 11–20goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHuberdeau – Frost – Coronato10:23
xG 0.71–0.08 (89%)attempts 13–4goals 2–0
- Kadri – Farabee – Sharangovich11:51
xG 0.76–0.51 (60%)attempts 24–8goals 0–0
- Lomberg – Beecher – Klapka4:55
xG 0.29–0.14 (68%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Backlund – Coleman – Zary11:41
xG 0.84–0.89 (49%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanley – Bean10:40
xG 0.88–0.09 (91%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Andersson – Bahl15:29
xG 1.05–0.58 (65%)attempts 18–14goals 2–0
- Weegar – Kuznetsov15:43
xG 0.51–0.77 (40%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).