Fri, Dec 5, 2025·American Airlines Center, Dallas
San Jose Sharks 1, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 03 | 16 | 08 | 117 |
| DAL | 19 | 04 | 311 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:20DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Mikko Rantanen · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 8:23SJSCollin GrafAssists: Ty Dellandrea, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P3 10:56DALSam SteelGWGAssists: Alexander Petrovic, Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 16:39DALMikko RantanenAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Vladislav Kolyachonok · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 17:41DALMiro HeiskanenENAssists: Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:05SJSDmitry Orlov: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:01SJSMacklin Celebrini: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:00DALMikko Rantanen: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:16DALMikko Rantanen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:06SJSJeff Skinner: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:06DALMikko Rantanen: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:27DALIlya Lyubushkin: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:56DALWyatt Johnston: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Hintz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Wennberg – Kurashev – Eklund10:11
xG 0.22–0.20 (53%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Gaudette – Ostapchuk4:51
xG 0.11–0.17 (40%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Smith – Celebrini8:56
xG 0.21–0.42 (33%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Skinner – Dellandrea – Graf11:04
xG 0.04–1.03 (4%)attempts 6–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Liljegren2:39
xG 0.31–0.22 (59%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Klingberg – Ferraro10:02
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Orlov – Klingberg3:54
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRantanen – Steel – Johnston9:18
xG 0.72–0.10 (88%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
- Blackwell – Faksa – Bastian5:44
xG 0.52–0.02 (96%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Benn – Hintz – Robertson9:46
xG 0.28–0.12 (71%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Bäck – Bourque – Hryckowian7:23
xG 0.24–0.09 (72%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLyubushkin – Kolyachonok12:24
xG 0.85–0.16 (84%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Petrovic – Capobianco12:56
xG 0.55–0.22 (71%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen13:54
xG 0.27–0.39 (41%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).