Fri, Dec 5, 2025·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Utah Mammoth 4, Vancouver Canucks 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 18 | 17 | 23 | 418 |
| VAN | 011 | 014 | 18 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:00UTAMikhail SergachevPPAssists: Clayton Keller, Dylan Guenther · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 14:05UTANick SchmaltzGWGAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, JJ Peterka · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–0
- P3 4:17VANArshdeep BainsAssists: Aatu Räty, Jonathan Lekkerimäki · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 17:52UTAKevin StenlundAssists: Kailer Yamamoto, Jack McBain · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–1
- P3 19:24UTAJohn MarinoENAssists: Kevin Stenlund · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:47VANMax Sasson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:30UTADylan Guenther: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:53VANLinus Karlsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:53UTAKevin Stenlund: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:58UTAKevin Stenlund: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:21VANQuinn Hughes: Holding2 min
- P3 18:19UTAMikhail Sergachev: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McBain won the faceoff against Sasson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – Peterka12:01
xG 0.57–0.44 (56%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- O'Brien – Stenlund – Yamamoto7:48
xG 0.13–0.05 (74%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Crouse – Carcone – McBain9:55
xG 0.27–0.51 (34%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
- Guenther – Cooley – But10:13
xG 0.65–1.32 (33%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Cole – Lamoureux12:04
xG 0.27–0.27 (49%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Durzi14:02
xG 0.68–0.77 (47%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
- Marino – Sergachev15:25
xG 0.66–1.40 (32%)attempts 15–25goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestDeBrusk – Pettersson – Karlsson9:36
xG 1.49–0.31 (83%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
- Räty – Bains – Lekkerimäki7:17
xG 0.22–0.12 (65%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Boeser – Garland – Kampf10:15
xG 0.51–0.44 (54%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Boeser – Garland – Pettersson2:55
xG 0.11–0.21 (34%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHronek – Hughes18:53
xG 1.73–1.17 (60%)attempts 35–15goals 0–2
- Myers – Pettersson3:59
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Willander10:28
xG 0.51–0.31 (62%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).