Sat, Dec 6, 2025·Madison Square Garden, New York
Colorado Avalanche 3, New York Rangers 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 09 | 113 | 119 | 11 | 342 |
| NYR | 011 | 08 | 28 | 00 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:06COLParker KellyAssists: Sam Malinski, Martin Necas · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P3 4:23NYRConor ShearyAssists: Vincent Trocheck, J.T. Miller · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 15:26COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Martin Necas, Josh Manson · Bat, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 19:18NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Alexis Lafrenière · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- OT 2:46COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Cale Makar, Martin Necas · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:26COLCale Makar: Interference2 min
- P2 3:31NYRJonny Brodzinski: Holding2 min
- P3 5:49NYRMatthew Robertson: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:20COLValeri Nichushkin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNelson – Landeskog – Colton6:53
xG 0.88–0.17 (84%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas15:00
xG 0.82–0.41 (67%)attempts 17–18goals 1–0
- Kelly – Kiviranta – Bardakov4:32
xG 0.29–0.14 (67%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Nichushkin – Olofsson – Drury7:57
xG 0.12–0.08 (62%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Malinski11:15
xG 1.00–0.20 (83%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Burns – Manson14:08
xG 0.80–0.23 (77%)attempts 22–14goals 1–0
- Toews – Makar17:43
xG 0.39–0.68 (37%)attempts 12–21goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestCarrick – Brodzinski – Raddysh4:58
xG 0.09–0.02 (82%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Berard – Cuylle – Laba6:57
xG 0.08–0.10 (47%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Miller – Cuylle2:27
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Miller – Sheary11:59
xG 0.33–0.59 (36%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Borgen – Robertson2:07
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Robertson – Morrow11:45
xG 0.39–0.61 (39%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Soucy – Borgen13:15
xG 0.28–0.57 (33%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).