Sat, Dec 6, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
St. Louis Blues 2, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 02 | 110 | 18 | 220 |
| OTT | 015 | 010 | 117 | 142 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:36STLJake NeighboursAssists: Brayden Schenn, Pius Suter · Bat, 0.15 xG1–0
- P3 0:12STLJake NeighboursGWGAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–0
- P3 15:39OTTFabian ZetterlundPPAssists: Stephen Halliday, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
Penalties (14)
- P1 4:32STLRobert Thomas: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 11:05STLJake Neighbours: Interference2 min
- P1 14:03STLJake Neighbours: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:40STLBrayden Schenn: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:32OTTClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:40STLDylan Holloway: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:19STLJustin Faulk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:53OTTDylan Cozens: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:53STLJoel Hofer: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:53STLOskar Sundqvist: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:53OTTTim Stützle: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:53OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:53STLPhilip Broberg: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:53OTTDrake Batherson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Greig
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Joseph – Holloway2:00
xG 0.20–0.01 (94%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours8:29
xG 0.46–0.50 (48%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Schenn – Joseph – Suter2:20
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Schenn – Bjugstad – Holloway2:15
xG 0.04–0.12 (24%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Faulk – Broberg3:22
xG 0.28–0.28 (49%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Parayko – Broberg11:42
xG 0.43–0.48 (47%)attempts 8–15goals 1–0
- Fowler – Parayko2:37
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Batherson – Cozens6:28
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Zetterlund – Tkachuk – Stützle7:09
xG 0.42–0.35 (55%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Cozens2:51
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Giroux – Amadio – Greig8:10
xG 0.27–0.27 (50%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpence – Kleven7:31
xG 0.64–0.04 (94%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Kleven – Zub3:26
xG 0.19–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Spence – Sanderson9:20
xG 0.54–0.36 (60%)attempts 19–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).