Sat, Dec 6, 2025·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Nashville Predators 3, Carolina Hurricanes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 04 | 07 | 311 | 322 |
| CAR | 319 | 114 | 27 | 640 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:01CARTaylor HallPPAssists: Jackson Blake, Logan Stankoven · Deflected, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 9:55CARNikolaj EhlersPPAssists: Seth Jarvis, Shayne Gostisbehere · Snap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 19:44CARWilliam CarrierAssists: Jordan Martinook, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.23 xG0–3
- P2 15:46CARJackson BlakeGWGAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, K'Andre Miller · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–4
- P3 4:45CARSebastian AhoUnassisted · Snap, 0.12 xG0–5
- P3 6:26NSHMichael BuntingPPAssists: Luke Evangelista, Erik Haula · Snap, 0.04 xG1–5
- P3 8:12CARJackson BlakeAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–6
- P3 9:09NSHMatthew WoodAssists: Filip Forsberg, Brady Skjei · Between legs, 0.14 xG2–6
- P3 11:36NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Nick Blankenburg, Spencer Stastney · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:19NSHFilip Forsberg: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 8:12NSHReid Schaefer: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P1 9:45NSHNicolas Hague: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 14:38CARJoel Nystrom: Holding2 min
- P1 17:14NSHFedor Svechkov: Holding2 min
- P2 0:58NSHRoman Josi: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:05CARJackson Blake: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 14:24NSHNicolas Hague: Interference2 min
- P2 14:24CARAndrei Svechnikov: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 19:02NSHFilip Forsberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:12CARJackson Blake: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestForsberg – Svechkov – Wood6:20
xG 0.59–0.12 (83%)attempts 13–1goals 2–1
- Haula – Marchessault – Bunting5:13
xG 0.29–0.25 (54%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- McCarron – Bunting – Jost2:06
xG 0.06–0.07 (46%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – Evangelista9:00
xG 0.35–0.36 (49%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStastney – Blankenburg9:21
xG 0.37–0.05 (88%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Skjei – Wilsby14:35
xG 0.59–0.50 (55%)attempts 10–18goals 1–0
- Josi – Hague15:47
xG 0.51–1.21 (30%)attempts 11–20goals 0–3
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestEhlers – Stankoven – Blake9:10
xG 0.53–0.08 (87%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Hall – Robinson – Kotkaniemi10:19
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Staal – Martinook – Carrier9:51
xG 0.36–0.32 (53%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis5:53
xG 0.36–0.57 (39%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalker – Miller13:47
xG 0.88–0.28 (76%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Gostisbehere – Chatfield13:27
xG 0.59–0.58 (50%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Nikishin – Nystrom11:08
xG 0.13–0.45 (23%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).