Sat, Dec 6, 2025·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Utah Mammoth 0, Calgary Flames 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 012 | 09 | 07 | 028 |
| CGY | 19 | 05 | 19 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:16CGYYegor SharangovichGWGAssists: Nazem Kadri, Joel Farabee · Snap, 0.26 xG0–1
- P3 17:46CGYConnor ZaryENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.55 xG0–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:40UTANick Schmaltz: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:44UTALiam O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:44CGYRyan Lomberg: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:18CGYNazem Kadri: Holding2 min
- P3 19:58CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McBain won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestHayton – Guenther – But10:36
xG 0.54–0.18 (75%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Peterka16:13
xG 0.63–0.32 (67%)attempts 21–12goals 0–0
- Crouse – Carcone – McBain10:33
xG 0.79–0.49 (62%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- O'Brien – Stenlund – Yamamoto5:37
xG 0.23–0.10 (69%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Durzi16:34
xG 0.55–0.27 (67%)attempts 19–18goals 0–0
- Sergachev – Durzi2:40
xG 0.30–0.07 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Cole – Lamoureux11:45
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLomberg – Beecher – Klapka5:52
xG 0.31–0.01 (96%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Kadri – Farabee – Sharangovich10:59
xG 0.77–0.72 (52%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Kadri – Huberdeau – Farabee3:08
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Frost – Coronato10:20
xG 0.31–0.52 (37%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Bahl18:38
xG 0.81–0.71 (53%)attempts 17–20goals 0–0
- Weegar – Kuznetsov19:54
xG 0.50–0.81 (38%)attempts 14–19goals 1–0
- Hanley – Bean12:12
xG 0.30–1.11 (21%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).