Sat, Dec 6, 2025·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Detroit Red Wings 4, Seattle Kraken 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 16 | 212 | 17 | 425 |
| SEA | 18 | 214 | 05 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:06DETEmmitt FinniePPAssists: Nate Danielson, Axel Sandin-Pellikka · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 16:16SEABrandon MontourAssists: Jordan Eberle, Matty Beniers · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 5:10DETAndrew CoppAssists: Simon Edvinsson, Moritz Seider · Poke, 0.50 xG2–1
- P2 6:44SEAAdam LarssonAssists: Vince Dunn, Tye Kartye · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 12:44SEAChandler StephensonAssists: Adam Larsson, Eeli Tolvanen · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 19:32DETJames van RiemsdykAssists: J.T. Compher, Simon Edvinsson · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 17:31DETPatrick KaneGWGAssists: Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:20SEABerkly Catton: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 8:52DETMoritz Seider: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:28DETPatrick Kane: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:00SEAVince Dunn: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00DETEmmitt Finnie: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Compher – Rasmussen10:11
xG 0.94–0.18 (84%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Kane – Copp – DeBrincat10:50
xG 0.86–0.38 (69%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Soderblom – Kasper – Danielson6:25
xG 0.02–0.27 (7%)attempts 2–14goals 0–1
- Larkin – Raymond – Finnie10:40
xG 0.28–0.59 (32%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Edvinsson19:28
xG 1.62–0.68 (70%)attempts 22–18goals 3–0
- Chiarot – Bernard-Docker2:18
xG 0.20–0.03 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Sandin-Pellikka14:06
xG 0.27–0.78 (26%)attempts 12–26goals 0–2
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Kartye – Winterton6:45
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–0goals 1–0
- Kakko – Wright – Catton7:45
xG 0.29–0.11 (72%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Marchment – Catton2:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers12:02
xG 0.39–0.59 (40%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn17:58
xG 0.82–0.20 (80%)attempts 23–11goals 2–1
- Mahura – Evans9:20
xG 0.18–0.20 (48%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Montour – Lindgren16:02
xG 0.89–1.25 (42%)attempts 26–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).