Sun, Dec 7, 2025·Centre Bell, Montreal
St. Louis Blues 4, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 14 | 26 | 18 | 418 |
| MTL | 211 | 07 | 18 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:57STLBrayden SchennPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Dylan Holloway · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 12:20MTLLane HutsonAssists: Zachary Bolduc, Jared Davidson · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 19:03MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Nick Suzuki, Noah Dobson · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 0:26STLDylan HollowayAssists: Brayden Schenn, Colton Parayko · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 1:05STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Robert Thomas, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.34 xG3–2
- P3 10:24STLBrayden SchennGWGAssists: Dylan Holloway, Mathieu Joseph · Snap, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 16:15MTLNoah DobsonAssists: Mike Matheson, Ivan Demidov · Slap, 0.02 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:48STLLogan Mailloux: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:59MTLZachary Bolduc: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 4:49STLMatt Luff: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:22MTLNoah Dobson: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 13:41STLTyler Tucker: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:41MTLJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kapanen won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours12:19
xG 0.76–0.30 (72%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Schenn – Joseph – Holloway8:28
xG 0.39–0.38 (51%)attempts 5–12goals 2–0
- Bjugstad – Suter – Dvorsky6:13
xG 0.14–0.32 (31%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Luff – Kaskimaki4:22
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Broberg14:13
xG 0.57–0.15 (80%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Faulk – Fowler4:01
xG 0.41–0.20 (68%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Broberg – Mailloux2:21
xG 0.11–0.08 (59%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Anderson – Evans6:52
xG 0.39–0.11 (78%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Texier – Kapanen – Demidov10:14
xG 0.49–0.25 (66%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Veleno – Bolduc – Davidson8:39
xG 0.22–0.25 (47%)attempts 3–5goals 1–1
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský13:59
xG 0.52–0.86 (37%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStruble – Hutson12:53
xG 0.64–0.54 (54%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Carrier – Hutson2:15
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Matheson – Dobson16:48
xG 0.84–0.83 (50%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).