Sun, Dec 7, 2025·Madison Square Garden, New York
Vegas Golden Knights 3, New York Rangers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 18 | 05 | 113 | 12 | 328 |
| NYR | 04 | 216 | 03 | 01 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:36VGKBrett HowdenAssists: Mitch Marner, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 9:08NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Matthew Robertson · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 13:01NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 19:08VGKTomas HertlAssists: Mark Stone, Jack Eichel · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- OT 4:52VGKJack EichelGWGAssists: Shea Theodore, Brett Howden · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:29VGKKeegan Kolesar: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:29NYRSam Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:13VGKBen Hutton: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:13NYRJaroslav Chmelar: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:10NYRArtemi Panarin: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:02VGKBrett Howden: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:02NYRWill Borgen: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Howden won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Marner – Howden9:15
xG 0.60–0.03 (95%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Saad – Hertl – Dorofeyev10:41
xG 0.45–0.21 (68%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Smith – Kolesar – Reinhardt8:09
xG 0.21–0.34 (38%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Barbashev – Eichel – Bowman11:05
xG 0.28–0.46 (38%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Whitecloud13:07
xG 0.57–0.09 (86%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Hanifin – Korczak5:57
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Hutton – Whitecloud3:02
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Miller – Sheary14:30
xG 0.73–0.46 (62%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Carrick – Brodzinski – Chmelar4:36
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Panarin – Lafrenière13:04
xG 0.34–0.46 (42%)attempts 10–15goals 2–1
- Berard – Cuylle – Laba9:13
xG 0.26–0.45 (37%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobertson – Morrow11:27
xG 0.67–0.06 (92%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Gavrikov – Schneider15:58
xG 0.45–0.74 (38%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
- Soucy – Borgen14:59
xG 0.44–0.74 (37%)attempts 12–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).