Mon, Dec 8, 2025·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Detroit Red Wings 4, Vancouver Canucks 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 17 | 27 | 17 | 421 |
| VAN | 011 | 011 | 017 | 039 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:14DETJames van RiemsdykGWGAssists: J.T. Compher, Michael Rasmussen · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 15:15DETAndrew CoppAssists: Axel Sandin-Pellikka, Alex DeBrincat · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 15:52DETNate DanielsonAssists: Axel Sandin-Pellikka, Marco Kasper · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–0
- P3 15:29DETDylan LarkinENAssists: Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.59 xG4–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:17DETAndrew Copp: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:27DETSimon Edvinsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:40VANMarcus Pettersson: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:50VANMax Sasson: Holding2 min
- P3 18:26DETMarco Kasper: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Kampf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestSoderblom – Kasper – Danielson7:57
xG 0.61–0.26 (70%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Larkin – Raymond – Finnie12:06
xG 0.24–0.44 (35%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Compher – Rasmussen9:47
xG 0.53–0.89 (37%)attempts 5–21goals 1–0
- Kane – Copp – DeBrincat12:34
xG 0.42–1.57 (21%)attempts 13–23goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Bernard-Docker3:19
xG 0.29–0.19 (61%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Bernard-Docker – Johansson9:17
xG 0.23–0.39 (38%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
- Seider – Edvinsson20:24
xG 0.66–0.81 (45%)attempts 14–20goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Sherwood – O'Connor3:47
xG 1.17–0.17 (87%)attempts 21–1goals 0–0
- Boeser – Garland – Kampf11:41
xG 0.45–0.09 (83%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- DeBrusk – Hoglander – Räty3:14
xG 0.39–0.06 (87%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Hoglander – O'Connor – Bains5:25
xG 0.20–0.08 (71%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Pettersson13:24
xG 1.62–0.30 (84%)attempts 27–6goals 0–0
- Hronek – Hughes16:10
xG 0.99–0.24 (81%)attempts 26–10goals 0–1
- Pettersson – Willander10:19
xG 0.34–0.32 (51%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).