Tue, Dec 9, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Dallas Stars 4, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 16 | 28 | 15 | 419 |
| WPG | 011 | 214 | 18 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:44DALEsa LindellAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 1:16DALRoope HintzPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Wyatt Johnston · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–0
- P2 2:31DALAlexander PetrovicAssists: Mavrik Bourque · Slap, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 11:04WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Kyle Connor · Snap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 18:52WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Josh Morrissey, Kyle Connor · Slap, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 4:46DALJason RobertsonPPGWGAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Mikko Rantanen · Slap, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 5:54WPGLogan StanleyAssists: Cole Perfetti, Gabriel Vilardi · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:44DALJustin Hryckowian: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:01WPGMorgan Barron: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:32WPGMorgan Barron: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:46DALWyatt Johnston: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:07WPGDylan DeMelo: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:25DALAlexander Petrovic: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:01WPGVladislav Namestnikov: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:30DALMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Steel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Hintz – Robertson7:29
xG 0.81–0.08 (91%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Steel – Johnston4:04
xG 0.22–0.03 (87%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Blackwell – Faksa – Steel4:20
xG 0.02–0.19 (9%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Bäck – Bourque – Hryckowian9:39
xG 0.39–0.62 (39%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetrovic – Harley12:57
xG 0.59–0.16 (79%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Capobianco – Lundkvist7:53
xG 0.35–0.44 (44%)attempts 8–9goals 0–2
- Lindell – Heiskanen13:40
xG 0.71–1.33 (35%)attempts 12–22goals 1–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Iafallo11:50
xG 0.98–0.62 (61%)attempts 21–10goals 1–1
- Namestnikov – Vilardi – Perfetti2:24
xG 0.28–0.10 (74%)attempts 3–2goals 1–1
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Pearson2:34
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi2:29
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Stanley6:18
xG 0.47–0.12 (80%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Morrissey – Pionk6:01
xG 0.20–0.06 (78%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Samberg – Pionk6:58
xG 0.11–0.01 (93%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).