Tue, Dec 9, 2025·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Colorado Avalanche 3, Nashville Predators 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 213 | 013 | 112 | 04 | 0 | 342 |
| NSH | 211 | 06 | 19 | 05 | 1 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:12COLBrock NelsonAssists: Josh Manson, Brent Burns · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 4:05NSHJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Filip Forsberg · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 5:30NSHReid SchaeferAssists: Fedor Svechkov · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P1 10:21COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Martin Necas, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 12:58NSHBrady SkjeiAssists: Adam Wilsby, Luke Evangelista · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 19:52COLCale MakarPPAssists: Martin Necas, Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.04 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NSH Ryan O'Reilly scored
- 2. COL Martin Necas stopped
- 3. NSH Filip Forsberg stopped
- 4. COL Valeri Nichushkin stopped
- 5. NSH Steven Stamkos stopped
- 6. COL Gabriel Landeskog stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:01COLJoel Kiviranta: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 11:20COLCale Makar: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:05NSHSpencer Stastney: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:01NSHNicolas Hague: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:37NSHFedor Svechkov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:22NSHErik Haula: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNelson – Landeskog – Colton8:07
xG 0.70–0.23 (75%)attempts 13–5goals 1–1
- Nichushkin – Olofsson – Drury5:47
xG 0.24–0.14 (64%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Kelly – Drury – Kiviranta2:57
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Kelly – Kiviranta – Bardakov2:44
xG 0.08–0.05 (62%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Manson10:24
xG 0.42–0.10 (81%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Burns – Toews2:05
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Toews – Makar15:21
xG 0.57–0.73 (44%)attempts 17–10goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – O'Reilly – Evangelista8:06
xG 0.89–0.10 (90%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Forsberg – Evangelista – Svechkov2:21
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Forsberg – Svechkov – Wood2:12
xG 0.10–0.06 (63%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- McCarron – Bunting – Schaefer3:37
xG 0.00–0.05 (4%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Wilsby11:56
xG 1.05–0.48 (69%)attempts 16–17goals 1–1
- Stastney – Blankenburg7:07
xG 0.70–0.25 (73%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Skjei – Perbix2:53
xG 0.36–0.03 (92%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).