Wed, Dec 10, 2025·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
Florida Panthers 4, Utah Mammoth 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 110 | 27 | 119 | 436 |
| UTA | 113 | 213 | 04 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:23UTADylan GuentherAssists: John Marino · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 19:17FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Sam Bennett · Snap, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 1:40FLASam BennettAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Niko Mikkola · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 3:24FLASam BennettAssists: Carter Verhaeghe · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–1
- P2 3:37UTADylan GuentherAssists: Lawson Crouse, John Marino · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–2
- P2 14:37UTAJack McBainAssists: Sean Durzi, Ian Cole · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 19:08FLAAnton LundellGWGAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:01FLAUvis Balinskis: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:27FLAA.J. Greer: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:15FLAEetu Luostarinen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:05UTAMikhail Sergachev: Holding2 min
- P3 6:48UTASean Durzi: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bennett won the faceoff against Schmaltz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGreer – Rodrigues – Samoskevich10:47
xG 0.79–0.12 (87%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
- Reinhart – Luostarinen – Lundell13:01
xG 0.76–0.12 (86%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Gregor – Boqvist – Studnicka5:23
xG 0.00–0.52 (0%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Marchand – Verhaeghe – Bennett12:36
xG 0.94–1.62 (37%)attempts 16–20goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Mikkola15:15
xG 0.85–0.26 (77%)attempts 20–8goals 2–1
- Petry – Balinskis11:24
xG 0.17–0.06 (72%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Jones – Forsling2:11
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestCarcone – McBain – But8:15
xG 0.79–0.09 (90%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Crouse – Hayton – Guenther10:10
xG 0.73–0.42 (63%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- O'Brien – Stenlund – Tanev7:24
xG 0.08–0.23 (26%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Peterka12:27
xG 0.42–1.04 (29%)attempts 9–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMarino – Sergachev10:08
xG 0.97–0.61 (61%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Schmidt – Durzi5:37
xG 0.29–0.07 (81%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Cole – Durzi4:16
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).