Thu, Dec 11, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
San Jose Sharks 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 011 | 18 | 111 | 12 | 332 |
| TOR | 111 | 114 | 05 | 00 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:33TORDakota JoshuaAssists: Jake McCabe, William Nylander · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 14:32TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: William Nylander, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 15:31SJSDmitry OrlovAssists: John Klingberg, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 18:35SJSJohn KlingbergAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Alexander Wennberg · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- OT 2:49SJSAlexander WennbergGWGAssists: William Eklund · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:31TORSimon Benoit: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:46TORMorgan Rielly: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 5:58SJSJohn Klingberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:04SJSMacklin Celebrini: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:28TORDakota Joshua: Interference2 min
- P3 9:03SJSTy Dellandrea: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Celebrini – Graf6:37
xG 0.67–0.24 (74%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Skinner – Dellandrea – Eklund3:21
xG 0.59–0.23 (72%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Kurashev – Smith – Celebrini4:14
xG 0.24–0.06 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Reaves – Goodrow – Gaudette8:33
xG 0.30–0.17 (64%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Mukhamadullin14:36
xG 0.93–0.35 (73%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Orlov – Klingberg16:04
xG 0.79–0.50 (61%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Orlov – Liljegren3:14
xG 0.08–0.03 (71%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Joshua – Roy11:14
xG 0.65–0.22 (75%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Laughton – Lorentz8:08
xG 0.21–0.14 (61%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Domi – Matthews – Knies10:58
xG 0.20–0.56 (26%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Tavares – Robertson – Cowan8:55
xG 0.63–1.08 (37%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Benoit2:38
xG 0.23–0.04 (86%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- McCabe – Stecher15:28
xG 0.41–0.38 (52%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Rielly – Stecher3:06
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).