Thu, Dec 11, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
Anaheim Ducks 2, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 012 | 110 | 111 | 233 |
| NYI | 313 | 015 | 29 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:18NYITravis MitchellAssists: Simon Holmstrom, Scott Mayfield · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 10:16NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Simon Holmstrom · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 19:06NYIAnders LeePPGWGAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Mathew Barzal · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 5:34ANALeo CarlssonAssists: Troy Terry, Olen Zellweger · Snap, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 2:37ANATroy TerrySHAssists: Ryan Poehling, Jackson LaCombe · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 6:06NYISimon HolmstromAssists: Anders Lee, Adam Pelech · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 14:46NYIRyan PulockAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Anders Lee · Snap, 0.01 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:33ANARyan Strome: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:23ANABeckett Sennecke: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 4:46ANAJackson LaCombe: Holding2 min
- P2 5:25NYIAnthony Duclair: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:48ANAChris Kreider: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carlsson won the faceoff against Barzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – Terry – Carlsson3:37
xG 0.17–0.04 (80%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Kreider – Strome – Vatrano2:19
xG 0.08–0.05 (60%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- McTavish – Gauthier – Sennecke11:37
xG 0.37–0.36 (50%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Kreider – Terry – Carlsson10:43
xG 0.63–0.64 (49%)attempts 17–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – LaCombe18:56
xG 0.98–0.84 (54%)attempts 31–16goals 0–0
- Helleson – Zellweger2:49
xG 0.12–0.09 (57%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Gudas – Zellweger10:02
xG 0.25–0.48 (35%)attempts 11–15goals 0–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestDuclair – Holmstrom – Ritchie5:25
xG 0.55–0.15 (78%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Horvat – Heineman – Shabanov5:32
xG 0.26–0.11 (71%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Barzal – Heineman – Shabanov7:16
xG 0.26–0.15 (64%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Duclair – Gatcomb – Ritchie2:02
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pulock – Schaefer14:11
xG 0.52–0.53 (50%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Mitchell11:42
xG 0.22–0.26 (45%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Pelech – DeAngelo12:47
xG 0.45–0.66 (41%)attempts 11–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).