Thu, Dec 11, 2025·Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 16 | 19 | 05 | 12 | 322 |
| PHI | 15 | 19 | 05 | 00 | 219 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:07VGKZach WhitecloudAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Braeden Bowman · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 16:11PHITrevor ZegrasAssists: Travis Sanheim, Christian Dvorak · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 12:53VGKMark StonePPAssists: Pavel Dorofeyev, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 16:08PHINoah JuulsenAssists: Christian Dvorak, Carl Grundstrom · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 2:47VGKMark StoneGWGAssists: Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:43VGKIvan Barbashev: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:34PHICarl Grundstrom: Holding2 min
- P2 12:05PHIMatvei Michkov: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 13:32VGKPavel Dorofeyev: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:12VGKBrett Howden: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Howden won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Hertl – Dorofeyev10:53
xG 0.46–0.28 (63%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Sissons – Kolesar – Reinhardt8:46
xG 0.15–0.01 (95%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Stone – Marner – Howden10:40
xG 0.45–0.45 (49%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Barbashev – Eichel – Bowman9:42
xG 0.21–0.60 (26%)attempts 4–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Korczak13:06
xG 1.12–0.32 (78%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Whitecloud13:05
xG 0.47–0.24 (67%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Hanifin – Korczak3:36
xG 0.04–0.03 (55%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGrundstrom – Cates – Brink3:57
xG 0.40–0.17 (70%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Couturier – Tippett – Michkov8:32
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Abols – Grundstrom4:27
xG 0.01–0.13 (6%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Konecny – Zegras11:55
xG 0.62–0.83 (43%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJuulsen – Murchison11:20
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Seeler – Sanheim17:08
xG 0.60–0.96 (38%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Andrae – Drysdale15:02
xG 0.43–0.86 (33%)attempts 8–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).